Avispa Fukuokavs
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sanfrecce Hiroshima · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Original prediction
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.64 | 20.2% | 17.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 24.5% | 21.6% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 55.3% | 60.6% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Probability
60.6%
Model confidence
60.6%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00