Avispa Fukuokavs
Mito Hollyhock
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 9/5/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mito Hollyhock · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Mito Hollyhock
Original prediction
Mito Hollyhock
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 46.4% | 35.4% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.2% | 25.5% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 3.68 | 25.4% | 39.1% | 13.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Mito Hollyhock
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Mito Hollyhock has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40