Avispa Fukuokavs
Gamba Osaka
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avispa Fukuoka · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avispa Fukuoka 1-2 Gamba Osaka
Original prediction
Avispa Fukuoka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.53 | 37.0% | 46.0% | 9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.2% | 25.8% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 34.8% | 28.3% | -6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Avispa Fukuoka
Probability
46.0%
Model confidence
46.0%
Avispa Fukuoka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 14 · GA 10 · avg 2.80/2.00