Avispa Fukuokavs
Fagiano Okayama
COMPLETEDJapan · J1 League · 10/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fagiano Okayama · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Fagiano Okayama
Original prediction
Fagiano Okayama
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 31.6% | 29.8% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 30.7% | 27.7% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 37.7% | 42.5% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Fagiano Okayama
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Fagiano Okayama has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20