Aveleyvs
Wingate & Finchley
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Isthmian · 9/14/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aveley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aveley 3-4 Wingate & Finchley
Original prediction
Aveley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 61.2% | 62.3% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.4% | 19.4% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 5.16 | 17.5% | 18.3% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Aveley
Probability
62.3%
Model confidence
62.3%
Aveley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00