Aveleyvs
Maldon & Tiptree
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Isthmian · 10/19/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aveley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aveley 1-2 Maldon & Tiptree
Original prediction
Aveley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 64.5% | 69.0% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.28 | 21.1% | 16.1% | -5.0 pts |
| Away | 6.27 | 14.4% | 14.9% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Aveley
Probability
69.0%
Model confidence
69.0%
Aveley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60