Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aveley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aveley 4-2 Cheshunt
Original prediction
Aveley
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 58.7% | 43.3% | -15.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.33 | 21.1% | 26.8% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 4.51 | 20.2% | 29.8% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Aveley
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Aveley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AveleyWLWWL
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CheshuntDDDLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
AveleyCheshunt
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24