Aveleyvs
Chatham Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Isthmian · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chatham Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aveley 1-0 Chatham Town
Original prediction
Chatham Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.26 | 40.0% | 38.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.0% | 21.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 35.0% | 40.3% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Chatham Town
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Chatham Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80