Aveleyvs
Carshalton Athletic
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Trophy · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aveley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aveley 2-1 Carshalton Athletic
Original prediction
Aveley
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.6% | 46.4% | 1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.7% | 25.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 30.8% | 28.4% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Aveley
Probability
46.4%
Model confidence
46.4%
Aveley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AveleyLWDLL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Carshalton AthleticLDLLL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AveleyCarshalton Athletic
100.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence33.3
100.0Form33.3
88.7Power45.3
2.20xG1.32