Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Avai 0-1 Vila Nova, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Avai 1-1 Vila Nova
Original prediction
Vila Nova
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 35.5% | 27.6% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 31.0% | 28.5% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.76 | 33.4% | 43.9% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.97 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Projected Score
Avai 0–1 Vila Nova
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AvaiLLLWW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Vila NovaWLWDW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
AvaiVila Nova
34.6Attack48.1
56.8Defence63.0
35.8Form58.0
44.7Power57.2
0.79xG1.19