Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Avai · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Avai 2-1 Londrina
Original prediction
Avai
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 09:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 43.8% | 37.2% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.9% | 28.8% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.51 | 26.4% | 34.0% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Avai
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Avai has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AvaiLLLDL
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LondrinaLLLWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AvaiLondrina
32.3Attack41.9
54.8Defence51.6
32.3Form30.1
42.2Power41.4
1.01xG1.03