Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Avai are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Concórdia are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Avai hold a 6.4-point power-rating edge (64.8 v 58.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.7% in the Copa Santa Catarina, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 38% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80