Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Avai 0-0 Ceara, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Avai 0-1 Ceara
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.53 | 36.6% | 35.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 31.3% | 30.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 32.1% | 34.5% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Projected Score
Avai 0–0 Ceara
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.3%
Model confidence
35.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AvaiLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CearaDWDLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AvaiCeara
33.3Attack36.7
54.4Defence56.7
33.3Form40.0
42.7Power47.0
0.92xG0.93