Auxerrevs
Stade Brestois 29
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stade Brestois 29 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29
Original prediction
Stade Brestois 29
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 31.0% | 31.5% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 27.4% | 25.7% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 41.5% | 42.8% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Stade Brestois 29
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Stade Brestois 29 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60