Friendlies Clubs
Auxerre
Home
St Maur Lusitanos
AwayFriendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.
The model projects 2.72 xG for Auxerre and 1.68 xG for St Maur Lusitanos — strong and strong attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 1-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Auxerre holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.Both sides have shown consistent scoring form recently — Auxerre finding the net in 9 of 10 matches and St Maur Lusitanos in 9 of 10. That scoring reliability aligns with the xG projection and strengthens the BTTS case.
The model projects a combined xG of 4.40 — high attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesSt Maur LusitanosProbability breakdown
Auxerre leads with 39% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Auxerre Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1
Auxerre host St Maur Lusitanos in Friendlies Clubs. Auxerre have recorded LWWWWL in recent matches while St Maur Lusitanos arrive with a run of DWWDLL. These sides have met 1 times recently, averaging 7.0 goals per game.
Why GoalVio backs this
The xG model projects 2.72 for Auxerre and 1.68 for St Maur Lusitanos. The gap of 1.04 is not large enough to decisively separate the sides — neither team is creating chances at a level that justifies a clear winner projection.
Biggest risk: null have won 4 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If null carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.
Risk factors
- ⚠Auxerre have been conceding 1.97 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
- ⚠The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.
Recent form
St Maur Lusitanos
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Auxerre vs St Maur Lusitanos?
GoalVio's model predicts Auxerre to win with 39% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Auxerre vs St Maur Lusitanos?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs St Maur Lusitanos?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Auxerre vs St Maur Lusitanos?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.