Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nice · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Auxerre 1-0 Nice
Original prediction
Nice
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 34.1% | 35.7% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 28.6% | 27.2% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 37.3% | 37.0% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Nice
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Nice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AuxerreLLLWD
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
NiceDLDDD
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.20/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AuxerreNice
44.4Attack11.1
0.0Defence55.6
0.0Form22.2
20.2Power32.7
1.42xG1.44