Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Auxerre · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Auxerre 1-1 Le Mans
Original prediction
Auxerre
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 44.9% | 44.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.5% | 22.5% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 28.5% | 32.8% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Auxerre
Probability
44.7%
Model confidence
44.7%
Auxerre has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AuxerreWLWWW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Le MansLLLWD
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
AuxerreLe Mans
52.4Attack47.6
19.0Defence28.6
42.9Form28.6
41.1Power37.9
2.19xG1.86