Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Auxerre · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Auxerre 1-3 Angers
Original prediction
Auxerre
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 47.3% | 42.5% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.9% | 27.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.82 | 24.8% | 30.0% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Auxerre
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Auxerre has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AuxerreLWDDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
AngersLWWLW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
AuxerreAngers
66.7Attack0.0
0.0Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
23.7Power15.3
1.66xG1.29