Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Auxerre · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Auxerre are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Amiens are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Auxerre hold a 14.9-point power-rating edge (66.0 v 51.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.8% in the Ligue 2, while Auxerre holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Auxerre
Probability
52.8%
Model confidence
52.8%
Auxerre has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40