Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Austria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Austria 3-1 Kosovo
Original prediction
Austria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 59.2% | 44.6% | -14.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.9% | 27.8% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 5.59 | 16.9% | 27.5% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Austria
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Austria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AustriaWWWWL
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
KosovoWWLWW
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AustriaKosovo
100.0Attack33.3
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power80.3
1.34xG1.03