Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Austria · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Austria 3-1 Israel
Original prediction
Austria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 65.7% | 67.2% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.70 | 20.0% | 19.0% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 6.58 | 14.3% | 13.8% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–012%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Austria
Probability
67.2%
Model confidence
67.2%
Austria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AustriaWWWLD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
IsraelWDDWW
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AustriaIsrael
62.5Attack27.8
66.7Defence27.8
50.0Form22.2
58.1Power29.8
2.57xG0.65