Austria Viennavs
Sturm Graz
COMPLETEDAustria · Bundesliga · 10/10/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sturm Graz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Austria Vienna 0-2 Sturm Graz
Original prediction
Sturm Graz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.25 | 28.7% | 29.4% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 27.1% | 26.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 44.2% | 43.7% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Sturm Graz
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Sturm Graz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20