Austria Salzburgvs
Sturm Graz II
COMPLETEDAustria · 2. Liga · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Austria Salzburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Austria Salzburg 3-3 Sturm Graz II
Original prediction
Austria Salzburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 44.3% | 49.0% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.8% | 24.1% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 29.9% | 26.9% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Austria Salzburg
Probability
49.0%
Model confidence
49.0%
Austria Salzburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60