Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brazil · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Australia 1-1 Brazil
Original prediction
Brazil
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.63 | 9.7% | 35.6% | 25.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.46 | 17.1% | 24.1% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 1.28 | 73.2% | 40.4% | -32.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-32.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Brazil
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Brazil has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AustraliaDLLLL
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BrazilWWWLD
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AustraliaBrazil
47.6Attack77.8
61.9Defence22.2
47.6Form33.3
53.3Power44.0
1.81xG1.25