Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brazil · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Australia 2-4 Brazil
Original prediction
Brazil
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.16 | 11.4% | 24.9% | 13.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.93 | 18.9% | 25.0% | 6.1 pts |
| Away | 1.33 | 69.7% | 50.1% | -19.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Brazil
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Brazil has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AustraliaDDLLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
BrazilDWWWL
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AustraliaBrazil
22.2Attack86.7
66.7Defence53.3
22.2Form66.7
40.2Power68.2
1.16xG1.67