GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 5/3/2026, 9:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

St. Louis City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Austin are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.40 conceded, while St. Louis City are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and St. Louis City hold a 15.9-point power-rating edge (37.2 v 53.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.6% in the Major League Soccer, while St. Louis City holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

St. Louis City

Probability

50.6%

Model confidence

50.6%

St. Louis City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

AustinWLDLD

GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
St. Louis CityLLDDW

GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
AustinSt. Louis City
40.7Attack47.4
33.3Defence56.1
31.5Form50.9
37.2Power53.1
1.11xG1.83
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