Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Austin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Austin are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Mazatlán are 0W-3D-1L in their last 4 (LDDD), averaging 0.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 9 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Austin hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (77.5 v 72.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.6% in the Leagues Cup, while Austin holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Austin
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Austin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.25/1.00