Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Austin II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Austin II 2-1 The Town
Original prediction
Austin II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 October 2026 at 21:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.4% | 59.1% | 13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.5% | 21.1% | -5.5 pts |
| Away | 3.22 | 28.1% | 19.8% | -8.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Austin II
Probability
59.1%
Model confidence
59.1%
Austin II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Austin IIWWWLW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
The TownDWWLL
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Austin IIThe Town
64.3Attack63.2
75.0Defence54.0
75.0Form46.0
72.0Power53.6
2.07xG0.97