Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Xelajú · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aurora 2-1 Xelajú
Original prediction
Xelajú
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 35.6% | 22.1% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.2% | 19.9% | -8.3 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.2% | 58.0% | 21.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Xelajú
Probability
58.0%
Model confidence
58.0%
Xelajú has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AuroraLLWLL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
XelajúWLWDL
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AuroraXelajú
51.5Attack72.7
39.4Defence60.6
36.4Form54.5
44.8Power61.2
1.24xG2.52