Auroravs
Nacional Potosí
COMPLETEDBolivia · Primera División · 10/11/2026, 9:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aurora · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aurora 2-2 Nacional Potosí
Original prediction
Aurora
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 54.3% | 47.5% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.0% | 24.3% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.19 | 21.7% | 28.2% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.79 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Aurora
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Aurora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80