Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Municipal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aurora 1-2 Municipal
Original prediction
Municipal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.48 | 26.1% | 29.2% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.2% | 28.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.8% | 42.0% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Municipal
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Municipal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AuroraLWWLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MunicipalDWDWD
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
AuroraMunicipal
33.3Attack50.0
33.3Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
23.7Power86.5
1.02xG1.42