Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marquense · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aurora 1-0 Marquense
Original prediction
Marquense
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.9% | 33.8% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 29.1% | 29.1% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 26.0% | 37.1% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Marquense
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Marquense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AuroraLLLWW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
MarquenseDWLWW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AuroraMarquense
33.3Attack44.4
33.3Defence88.9
0.0Form77.8
23.7Power72.8
0.97xG1.34