Auroravs
Malacateco
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 8/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Malacateco · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aurora 1-0 Malacateco
Original prediction
Malacateco
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.96 | 46.3% | 32.7% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.3% | 29.1% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.58 | 25.4% | 38.2% | 12.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Malacateco
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Malacateco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60