Auroravs
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
COMPLETEDBolivia · Primera División · 9/5/2026, 9:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aurora · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aurora 3-0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Original prediction
Aurora
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 59.3% | 58.3% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 22.6% | 22.3% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 5.05 | 18.1% | 19.4% | 1.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Aurora
Probability
58.3%
Model confidence
58.3%
Aurora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60