Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aurora · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Aurora are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDDL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Guabirá are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Aurora hold a 7.6-point power-rating edge (55.9 v 48.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 53.8% in the Primera División, while Aurora holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 69% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aurora
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Aurora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40