Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aurora 2-4 Bolívar
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 August 2026 at 01:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5-unified-score-distribution.
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
24.2%
Model confidence
11.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AuroraDDWDL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
BolívarWLWWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AuroraBolívar
54.8Attack76.2
54.8Defence64.3
52.4Form64.3
55.9Power66.9
1.23xG1.97