Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aurora · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Aurora 2-0 ABB
Original prediction
Aurora
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.07 | 84.4% | 63.8% | -20.7 pts |
| Draw | 7.89 | 11.5% | 20.5% | 9.0 pts |
| Away | 22.15 | 4.1% | 15.7% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Aurora
Probability
63.8%
Model confidence
63.8%
Aurora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AuroraDDWWL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ABBWLLWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AuroraABB
52.4Attack42.9
71.4Defence47.6
71.4Form28.6
68.1Power40.4
1.92xG0.81