Augsburg IIvs
Illertissen
COMPLETEDGermany · Regionalliga - Bayern · 10/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Illertissen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Augsburg II 2-1 Illertissen
Original prediction
Illertissen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.60 | 35.0% | 30.1% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.4% | 27.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 37.6% | 42.9% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Illertissen
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Illertissen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20