Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Auda 1-1 Rīgas FS
Original prediction
Rīgas FS
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.81 | 18.8% | 21.9% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 23.1% | 24.0% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 58.1% | 54.1% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.90 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AudaWDWDD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Rīgas FSWDLWD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AudaRīgas FS
53.3Attack80.5
67.8Defence75.9
66.7Form83.9
63.3Power79.3
0.90xG1.50