Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rīgas FS · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Auda are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Rīgas FS are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWDW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Rīgas FS hold a 20.1-point power-rating edge (61.2 v 81.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.4% in the Virsliga, while Rīgas FS holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Rīgas FS
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
12.4%
Rīgas FS has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20