Aucklandvs
Melbourne City
COMPLETEDAustralia · A-League · 10/17/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Auckland · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Auckland 3-1 Melbourne City
Original prediction
Auckland
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.47 | 38.1% | 38.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.3% | 28.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 33.6% | 33.4% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Auckland
Probability
38.6%
Model confidence
38.6%
Auckland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00