Auckland Unitedvs
Napier City Rovers
COMPLETEDNew-Zealand · National League - National · 10/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Auckland United · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Auckland United 7-1 Napier City Rovers
Original prediction
Auckland United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 12:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.8% | 37.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.9% | 27.7% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 38.3% | 34.8% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Auckland United
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Auckland United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60