Auckland Cityvs
Wellington Olympic
COMPLETEDNew-Zealand · National League - National · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Auckland City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Auckland City 2-2 Wellington Olympic
Original prediction
Auckland City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 12:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.75 | 51.7% | 47.1% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.68 | 24.6% | 28.3% | 3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.82 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Auckland City
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Auckland City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 2.80/1.20
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60