Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aucas · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Aucas are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Orense SC are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Aucas hold an 11.5-point power-rating edge (56.0 v 44.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.8% in the Liga Pro, while Aucas holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aucas
Probability
47.8%
Model confidence
47.8%
Aucas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40