Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aucas · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Aucas are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Manta FC are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDW), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Aucas hold a 20.6-point power-rating edge (56.0 v 35.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 49.3% in the Liga Pro, while Aucas holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 21% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aucas
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
49.3%
Aucas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 2 · GA 2 · avg 0.40/0.40