Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aucas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Aucas 0-0 Macara, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Aucas 1-2 Macara
Original prediction
Aucas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.6% | 39.5% | -8.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.3% | 30.8% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.79 | 24.1% | 29.8% | 5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.1 pts
Projected Score
Aucas 0–0 Macara
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Aucas
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Aucas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AucasDDDWL
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
MacaraWLWWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AucasMacara
36.7Attack45.6
68.9Defence63.3
55.6Form56.7
55.7Power56.5
0.86xG0.78