Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aucas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Aucas 0-0 Libertad, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Aucas 1-0 Libertad
Original prediction
Aucas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 60.4% | 46.9% | -13.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 24.0% | 29.7% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 5.87 | 15.6% | 23.4% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.4 pts
Projected Score
Aucas 0–0 Libertad
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Aucas
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Aucas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
AucasLWLDW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LibertadWDWWW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AucasLibertad
38.5Attack37.2
66.7Defence62.8
56.4Form47.4
55.8Power51.4
0.93xG0.67