Independiente del Valle leads with 56% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Match insights

Aucas head into this in Liga Pro fixture at Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda in decent form (LWW), while Independiente del Valle arrive in decent form (WW). Aucas have a 67% win rate across their last 3 matches, compared to 100% for Independiente del Valle over 2 games.

Tactically, Independiente del Valle hold the edge. Their elite attack (97/100) is pitted against a solid Aucas defence (66/100), while Aucas's attack faces a watertight Independiente del Valle backline. The model flags this as a potential away-team performance.

Aucas have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game at home. Independiente del Valle have been excellent on the road, winning all 4 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 2.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per away game.

Independiente del Valle have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects a draw with 56% confidence. Win probabilities: Aucas 2004%, Draw 2419%, Independiente del Valle 5577%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

Recent form

Aucas

L

vs Independiente del Valle

16 Jul 2026

0–3

W

@ Deportivo Cuenca

12 Jul 2026

1–0

W

vs Guayaquil City FC

8 Jul 2026

1–0

Independiente del Valle

W

@ Aucas

16 Jul 2026

3–0

W

@ Santo Domingo

8 Jul 2026

2–0

W

vs Manta FC

4 Jul 2026

4–0

W

@ Macara

16 May 2026

3–0

W

@ Universidad Catolica

13 May 2026

2–0

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