Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aucas · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Aucas are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Emelec are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Aucas hold an 11.3-point power-rating edge (56.0 v 44.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the Liga Pro, while Aucas holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aucas
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Aucas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20