Aucasvs
El Nacional
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 2/26/2023, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aucas · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Aucas are 0W-3D-1L in their last 4 (DLDD), averaging 0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded, while El Nacional are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 3.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 9 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and El Nacional hold a 3.4-point power-rating edge (56.0 v 59.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.2% in the Liga Pro, while Aucas holds the strongest overall chance at 34% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Aucas
Probability
34.2%
Model confidence
34.2%
Aucas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.50/1.25
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00